Meanwhile, I’m waiting for NCSoft to report their quaterly numbers as well as some new data for May for some other games before updating the website. So expect an update in the next week or two.
Wonderful slides and a great website overall. I have a question about the data overall. The slide “Total MMOG Active Subscriptions - Absolute Contribution” shows a significant drop over all MMOGs in the first quarter/half of 2006. What’s up with that? Interestingly, other slides (such as “MMOG Active Subscriptions 200,000+) do not show this drop. In this slide Lineage has a spike in early 2006 but no other game does. Is there maybe a formula error in the spreadsheet?
The other charts do show it, it’s just most noticeable on that particular chart because the relative contributions of other MMOGs are all sharply adjusted.
The reason for the dramatic drop is an unexplained spike in Lineage 1 active users in December 2005. Lineage had been on the decline, but it showed a very large and unexpected spike in December 2005. Could have been due to an influx of customers due to the closing of some illegal Lineage servers. Whatever the cause, when we next get data from NCSoft in March 2006, not only has the number gone back down, but it’s continued on it’s downward “trend” from before, so there’s a “sudden” drop of 800,000 players that in reality was probably spread out over the preceeding 3 months.
Compounding the problem is the spotty nature of the data. I don’t get updates on every MMOG every month. The 2006 GDC was in March that year and I got updates on some MMOGs from some sources there. EverQuest, EverQuest II, Star Wars Galaxies, and Final Fantasy XI all also had drops in subscribers primarily due to the impact of World of Warcraft. In reality, these drops were spread out over the 12 months previous, but again I just didn’t know about them until March 2006.
So it’s not so much as subscriptions dropped suddenly but were simply never that high over the previous few months.
Hi SirBruce, just a note, unless it is me.
I was interested to see the presentation.
But, sorry to tell you that,but I think your presentation has been hacked/changed.
As you’ve got some weird slide on it, you may want to put back a backup.
It is just to notify you.
SirBruce (blog author) says:
Added on May 14th, 2008 at 12:22 pmMeanwhile, I’m waiting for NCSoft to report their quaterly numbers as well as some new data for May for some other games before updating the website. So expect an update in the next week or two.
SirBruce (blog author) says:
Added on May 14th, 2008 at 1:12 pmAnd Blizzard just announced today World of Warcraft at 10.7 million worldwide, so the presentation is already outdated.
SirBruce (blog author) says:
Added on May 15th, 2008 at 10:43 amPDF versions of my 2008 ION talk and my 2006 AGC talk are now online as well.
Paul says:
Added on May 20th, 2008 at 5:35 amWonderful slides and a great website overall. I have a question about the data overall. The slide “Total MMOG Active Subscriptions - Absolute Contribution” shows a significant drop over all MMOGs in the first quarter/half of 2006. What’s up with that? Interestingly, other slides (such as “MMOG Active Subscriptions 200,000+) do not show this drop. In this slide Lineage has a spike in early 2006 but no other game does. Is there maybe a formula error in the spreadsheet?
SirBruce (blog author) says:
Added on May 20th, 2008 at 12:58 pmThe other charts do show it, it’s just most noticeable on that particular chart because the relative contributions of other MMOGs are all sharply adjusted.
The reason for the dramatic drop is an unexplained spike in Lineage 1 active users in December 2005. Lineage had been on the decline, but it showed a very large and unexpected spike in December 2005. Could have been due to an influx of customers due to the closing of some illegal Lineage servers. Whatever the cause, when we next get data from NCSoft in March 2006, not only has the number gone back down, but it’s continued on it’s downward “trend” from before, so there’s a “sudden” drop of 800,000 players that in reality was probably spread out over the preceeding 3 months.
Compounding the problem is the spotty nature of the data. I don’t get updates on every MMOG every month. The 2006 GDC was in March that year and I got updates on some MMOGs from some sources there. EverQuest, EverQuest II, Star Wars Galaxies, and Final Fantasy XI all also had drops in subscribers primarily due to the impact of World of Warcraft. In reality, these drops were spread out over the 12 months previous, but again I just didn’t know about them until March 2006.
So it’s not so much as subscriptions dropped suddenly but were simply never that high over the previous few months.
Bloodknight says:
Added on July 15th, 2008 at 5:08 amHi SirBruce, just a note, unless it is me.
I was interested to see the presentation.
But, sorry to tell you that,but I think your presentation has been hacked/changed.
As you’ve got some weird slide on it, you may want to put back a backup.
It is just to notify you.