MMOGCHART.COM

An Analysis of MMOG Subscription Growth

Version 23.0

INTRODUCTION
The initial inspiration for my research was an article by Bucky Carooe about the changing subscription base of Ultima Online. I decided it would be interesting to do some further research and chart the trend in active subscriptions for the “Big Four” - Ultima Online, EverQuest, Asheron’s Call, and Dark Age of Camelot. Apparently no one else had ever bothered to collect this data in one place before. What followed was days of research looking at press releases, news articles, and web archives to find the data I needed.

The initial version generated an overwhelming response, and I soon began to make frequent revisions, adding new data points as I could get them and expanding the chart beyond its original purpose to chart the growth of all the major subscription-based MMOGs on the market. After my initial efforts, however, several months passed where it became more difficult to obtain updated numbers, and several new MMOGs came out and did not do all that well. Despite this, I continued to receive queries about my research, and after attending the 2003 Game Developers Conference, I was inspired to renew my efforts and continue to release updated versions as I receive additional information and the industry continues to evolve. There are, however, a few caveats to the data presented above.

Firstly, I rely on the companies and employees themselves to provide the bulk of the data. The numbers they give could be completely made up, and as Enron taught us, even financial reports could be misleading. However, given that none of claims seem highly outrageous, and that all companies are equally capable of lying, it would seem that the numbers given are pretty close to the truth. There is probably some minor fudging involved when a company wants to claim a major milestone, rounding up to the nearest 5K or 10K increment. But at the very least, the relative comparison between MMOGs is retained, even if individual data points may be off 10% or more.

Secondly, there’s no universal consensus on what constitutes an active subscriber. Some companies may count players currently on their traditional first “free month” as a current subscriber, whereas others might not start counting them until after that period and the customer actually chooses to subscribe. Although the accounts that don’t subscribe get “subtracted” a month later, such accounting could create a continuous effect of inflating the overall subscription total. Most MMOGs probably do this, but some may not, and this may make them appear slightly larger than they actually are. Still, after the initial launch of a game or an expansion, the actual monthly effect of such accounts should be relatively minor… perhaps on the order of 10%. Another issue is how subscribers currently on game time cards should be counted; if they still have game time allocated on their card but they haven’t played the game in over a year, can they still be called an active subscriber?

Finally, a subscriber is generally counted as an individually numbered account currently in a company’s billing system. In some instances, one person may maintain multiple accounts, and thus be double or even triple-counted. Some MMOGs may even encourage this behavior more than others. There isn’t much I can do about this fact; again, the effect is probably minor compared to the overall population of a given MMOG, and in any case it’s certainly valid to count such multiple subscriptions if your goal is to evaluate the relative market share of each MMOG. Nevertheless, it’s probably worth keeping in mind that technically I’m tracking subscriptions more than I’m tracking subscribers.

Some notes about individual games/companies:

For games that have both a free component and a premium subscription component, I have only been tracking premium subscribers, since I feel that is the best way to compare them to other subscription-based MMOGs. This includes games like RuneScape, Tibia, and Second Life. So while you may see higher numbers for these games elsewhere, keep in mind that you are probably seeing a number that includes all of the free registered accounts that may or may not be active.

In July of 2003, Sony Online Entertainment introduced their special “Station Access” subscription, which gives customers a subscription to all of its MMOG titles at a reduced price. Currently this includes EverQuest, EverQuest: Online Adventures, EverQuest II, Star Wars Galaxies, PlanetSide, The Matrix Online, Vanguard: Saga of Heroes, and Pirates of the Burning Sea together at a reduced price. Currently about 50K subscribers are using this subscription plan. While the possibility exists that SOE could “inflate” its subscription figures via this method, so far it does not appear that for the most part they have done so. For example, the number of Star Wars Galaxies players charted includes only those station access subscribers who have actually created a Star Wars Galaxies character, not all 50K. However, it is possible that since station access subscribers may move on to playing another game primarily, these subscriptions will still be “counted” towards SWG or another game even though they are not strictly active.

For NCSoft’s titles, the number I track is the “monthly access” number for each game as reported in the company’s quarterly reports. According to their documents, this number is the “number of unique users that log on at least once in the given month.” This is important for games like Lineage and Lineage II which use a variety of different subscription models depending on territory. For games like City of Heroes and Tabula Rasa, this number is probably somewhat less than the total number of active subscribers, unless NCSoft is just reporting the number of subscriptions in that field for those games.

For World of Warcraft, as stated in Blizzard’s press releases, “World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.”

All of this underscores that subscription figures are an imperfect metric at best, and ideally would be used with a variety of other methods when measuring the success or popularity of a given MMOG.

SOURCES AND METHODS
Many people have asked about the sources of my data points, as they are not documented. I have considered doing so, but it is difficult to completely verify every data point on my charts. In fact, they sometimes change from version to version.

My numbers come from a variety of sources, and some games have more than one source. These sources include the following:

1. Official Corporate Data – As my research has grown in popularity and importance, more and more game companies are now providing me with subscriber data directly. You’ll probably be able to spot which ones simply by the fact that they tend to have more data points than other games. My ultimate goal is to have ALL companies in this market providing data in the same way, either through me or directly to everyone in the market, for the benefit of the industry as a whole.
2. Corporate Press Releases – From time to time, particularly whenever a game reaches a particular subscriber milestone, companies will release a press release trumpeting the success of their game. This was much more common in the early years than it is today; Origin/EA, Verant/Sony, and Mythic used to announce their numbers regularly. These days, it’s usually Blizzard.
3. Corporate Documents – Generally speaking, these are public documents for the purposes of financial disclosure and/or investor relations. Many people outside of the financial industry never see these documents, so they may be unaware of their existence. NCSoft is the best example of this; they regularly release quarterly reports that break down their numbers at a far more detailed level than what I provide here. Not all MMOG developers are public, though, and many that are do not routinely disclose numbers down to the subscriber level. Sometimes a number does slip out, though, and if I find it, I’ll use it. Other times these are disclosed in bankruptcy documents or other court records.
4. News Articles – From time to time, reporters for both online and offline publications are able to get a hold of numbers that I have not. Care has to be taken, though, as sometimes a reporter can confuse total sales with subscribers, or may simply regurgitate a number that is many months old. Still, if I find a number that appears to be credible, I will generally use it.
5. Public Comments – Game developers and publishers will sometimes make public comments about their subscriber numbers, even if there’s no official announcement. Rarely, these comments are places like developer mailing lists or message boards; more often, they are related at gaming conferences or press events. Still, if they are not widely reported in a news article, these can be even harder to find out about.
6. Anonymous Sources – More and more of my data is now coming from inside sources: people within the industry who give me numbers on the condition of anonymity. So far most of these have been pretty reliable – if their numbers are not exact, they are usually in the ballpark. As always, I have to use my best judgment in deciding whether or not a source is credible.
7. Educated Guesses – Very rarely, a number will appear on the chat that’s non-sourced and simply my educated guess based on known information. An example might be, “Well, we know they have at least 200K subscribers, and they’ve sold 600K copies, and their revenues are such-n-such, so I’m going to say they have at least 350K subscribers for the purposes of the chart.” I do not do this very often, and if I do, I’ll duly note it in the Analysis section by giving the data an appropriate Accuracy Rating.

In a few cases where numbers seemed to conflict, I have picked the one that seemed the most reliable and which seemed to fit with other data. The upshot of all this is that these numbers should not be taken as gospel. They represent the best research to date.

Despite all of the above, some people continue to question some of the numbers and so I’ve designed a simple, easy to understand ratings system for each MMOG I put on the charts. This rating gives the reader an idea of just how reliable the numbers shown on the graph are, and how much weight one should give them. The ratings are:

A – This indicates that the vast majority of the data points shown come from either official announcements by the companies involved or reliable inside sources. The numbers can be considered reliable, although a few of the data points may be incorrect.

B – This indicates that while some of the data points shown may be official, a substantial number come from press articles, unproven inside sources, or other indirect means. The numbers may not be exact for the MMOG in question, but are certainly in the ballpark.

C – This indicates that most or all of the data points provided are merely industry “best guesses” or are otherwise questionable. Usually, I will not chart MMOGs that rate C or lower. Their numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt.

D – This indicates that no data is available for this game at this time, but I expect to get something chart-worthy on it in the future.

I am also trying to restrict my charts to truly “massive” MMOG games. There are numerous smaller MMOGs, graphical MUDs, and other boutique games that one could chart if one wanted to – Blade Mistress, Gemstone IV, Meridian 59, and others. In the past, I’ve been reluctant to chart games below about 10,000 subscribers, mainly because they made the charts very crowded, and it was not my goal to list every game that came along. Still, I have made exceptions for some smaller games that are making an impact, and it is possible that in the future more of the smaller MMOGs will be represented – but only if I get data for them.

Similarly, I have chosen to graph only those MMOGs that are part of the “modern” Internet era. While data on previous graphical MMOGs on hourly pay game networks like TEN, MPG.net, QuantumLink, and so on would be interesting to see, I believe it is hard to compare them to their modern counterparts. Not only were their player bases generally small in relative terms (usually under 10,000), but also their pricing models and accessibility were often completely different.

In previous versions of this report I did not include Lineage: The Blood Pledge in my graph. Why? Well, two main reasons. First, it completely dwarfed the other MMOGs, distorting the graph and making visual comparisons much more difficult. But more importantly, Lineage used substantially different metrics for counting “players”. Press accounts often report them as having millions of “players”, but most of these players did not buy a box at the local software store and then pay a monthly subscription fee like traditional MMOGs. Instead, they play in “PC baangs”, Internet cybercafes in Korea that buy Lineage access from the company and then sell it at hourly rates to customers. This fact, combined with the unusual Korean dynamic of rapid deployment of broadband and the fact that imports of Japanese console platforms were restricted, made Lineage unusually popular. Lineage’s lack of success in the United States via the more “traditional” MMOG model only proves this out. However, people still demand to see their data for comparison, and so now that I’ve broken the graph into multiple parts, I’ve decided to include Lineage (and Lineage II). The number I will be using is the worldwide total of “Monthly Access” players. This number is the most comparable to a monthly subscription in North America or Europe; indeed, at least 50% of Lineage players are now on a monthly-subscription as opposed to paying and playing in a cybercafe. NCSoft also tracks a variety of other metrics for measuring player population, such as daily access, peak concurrent users, registered IPs, and so on.

GENERAL ANALYSIS

The first piece of insight that is immediately obvious from the charts is that MMOG populations tend to follow hyperbolic or parabolic curves. There is little variation; only the slope is different from one MMOG to another. The most dramatic effect is immediately after launch, where the rise is population tends to be quite rapid. This is probably the result of how games are distributed and “launched” via the traditional retail channel. Large numbers of customers try the game out in a short period of time, and some of them sign up to become subscribers, but within a few short months the growth starts to slow appreciably.

Another more controversial opinion I’ve put forward based upon the charts is that MMOG expansions, generally speaking, do not substantially alter the growth rate of subscriptions of a MMOG. If they did, I would expect to see a slow-down in subscriptions leading up to a release of an expansion, and a sharp rise afterwards. I did not see this behavior in my early data. However, the additional data I’ve gathered since my first article shows that UO, AC, and even EQ have shown some minor response to new releases; the release of UO: AoS is perhaps the most dramatic example. In fact, there appears to be a slight acceleration of growth a month or two before the release of an expansion, which then continues for approximately 3-6 months afterwards. The typical response rate seems to be 10-20% higher subscriptions at the end of that period than what the linear trend suggested prior to the expansion’s release. Perhaps I will do another section on this in the future with more analytic data. For now, I’ve removed the expansion indicators from the graph, as they were making the charts more difficult to read, particularly at the low end.

The release of expansion boxes is certainly a necessity in the current retail model of business. You have to keep fresh boxes on the shelf, and you need the major magazines to cover your game on an ongoing basis. A new box gives writers something to write about, and it gives retailers reason to order lots of them to put on the shelf, because most of the people who are already subscribed to your MMOG will go out and buy the expansion box. New subscribers will simply pick up a copy of the new box rather than a copy of an old one. But it seems relatively few new customers are inspired to subscribe to your pre-existing MMOG simply because you have an expansion pack out. At the very least, expansion packs require substantial new features that have prevented customers from subscribing to your game in the past. But one should not expect to dramatically increase your subscriber base beyond its current growth rate simply by putting a new box out on the shelf.

Based on subscriber growth, I’ve divided the history of the modern MMOG into four distinct periods, or eras, which seem to be noticeably different from each other.

The Golden Age: January 1997 – April 2001
This represented an early Golden Age of MMOGs, where UO, EQ, and AC all showed unrestrained growth. Although The Realm eventually did fade from the scene, generally speaking the games were not cannibalizing the subscribers from others. The size of the market was largely unknown, and the initial success of the early entrants inspired many other companies to begin developing MMOGs of their own. The average yearly growth in total MMOG subscriptions during this period was 152.1%.

The Age of Transition: May 2001 – April 2002
This was a transition period I first identified in my original version of this analysis. The growth rates of EQ and AC slowed dramatically, UO actually begins to LOSE subscribers, and a variety of new MMOGs entered the fray with varying degrees of success. What happened? Well, the precursor event was the cancellation by EA of UO2 (aka Ultima Worlds Online: Origin) in March of 2001. EA chose instead to concentrate on further developing UO and expanding its market into Asia (although UO2 certainly had its own budgetary and production problems at the time as well). While this may or may not have been a good strategic business decision, within the MMOG community, the event was quite controversial. Many customers of UO had only remained subscribers in anticipation of getting into the UO2 beta; with that prospect gone, they were free to move on to other games. Other long-time UO customers quit in disgust over the decision, seeing UO as a game that would not be able to compete in the future as other MMOGs continued to evolve, particularly graphically. The expansion release of UO: Third Dawn was not well received, further disappointing their customer base. However, this alone does not explain EQ’s noticeable change at around the same time. I believe this can be explained primarily by the beta tests and subsequent releases of Anarchy Online and Dark Age of Camelot. Both games were getting a lot of strong pre-release press. DAoC had their Phase 3 beta start in April following by Phase 4 in August, while Anarchy Online sent an open beta to some 100,000 testers in June. Long-time players of UO, EQ, and even AC now had alternatives they never had before. While some subscribers may maintain accounts on multiple MMOGs at once, the majority of online players really only have time to devote to one MMOG at a time. And so the changes began… fewer customers subscribing or renewing to UO and EQ in anticipation of upcoming MMOGs, perhaps even playing in their beta tests. Although AO did have some troubles post-launch, DAoC was a runaway success. Is it really likely they found 200,000+ new customers interested in online fantasy MMORPGs that were not currently playing UO, EQ, or AC? I think not. It would seem that quite a large portion, perhaps even the majority, of initial DAoC subscribers were customers moving from other MMOGs. And at the very least, when a new customer went to the store to pick up a new game, they were certainly less likely to pick up a copy of EQ or UO with DAoC on the shelf right next to them. If you extrapolate the previous trends of EQ and UO, you see that EQ should have had some 550,000 subscribers by June of 2002 and UO nearing 300,000. That’s approximately 200,000 subscribers “missing” from those games… so where are they? In the 200,000 playing DAoC, I would wager. This was the first indication that the fantasy MMORPG market was becoming saturated. While the total customer base of MMORPGs did continue to grow, Dark Age of Camelot was not itself the cause of this; it simply diverted the growth that would have gone to other games. It is interesting to note that Asheron’s Call also saw a substantial but temporary boost during this time upon the release of its Dark Majesty expansion. The other non-fantasy MMOG entrants – Anarchy Online, Motor City Online, and WWII Online, all showed relatively limited success. MCO reached its peak in June and then stared to decline. AO and WW2OL both suffered from bad launches; AO peaked early and then rapidly lost subscribers until they finally managed to stop the bleeding; WW2OL showed a more steady curve, but only because it did not start charging (and thus counting) subscribers until October. The average yearly growth in total MMOG subscriptions during this period was 55.4%.

The Age of Competition: May 2002 – October 2004
This was a tough period for the MMOG market. While the overall size of the market continued to grow in 2002 and 2003, the competitive picture grew worse. Many MMOGs in development were delayed or outright cancelled. Older games struggled to retain their subscribers, usually shrinking, recovering, and then slowly shrinking again. Most of the new MMOGs that did enter the market in this time period did not achieve their subscription goals, and a few had to shut down operations. While there were a few bright spots – Final Fantasy XI, RuneScape, Eve Online, and City of Heroes – between May 2002 and May 2003, the market grew by less than 8%, and between January 2004 and October 2004, the market grew by less than 2%. Towards the end of 2004, things were starting to look pretty bleak. The average yearly growth in total MMOG subscriptions during this period was 37.5%.

The Age of Warcraft: November 2004 – Today
Starting with the release of World of Warcraft, everything we thought we knew about the size of the market changed. Not only was World of Warcraft a success, but also it far outstripped any other subscription-based MMOG to date, and surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. While the majority of WoW’s subscribers are in Asia (China specifically), it has also become the market share leader in North America and Europe as well. A good deal of WoW’s success comes for the Blizzard brand, which brought in a lot of new gamers into the market who had never subscribed to an MMOG before, but the game also set a new bar for the amount of content, ease of use, and level of polish expected from a top-tier MMOG title. WoW’s expected market rival, SOE’s EverQuest II, never really achieved the same level of market acceptance. The impact of WoW has been felt on almost all existing MMOG titles, most notably Dark Age of Camelot, EverQuest, and Lineage I and II. The average yearly growth in total MMOG subscriptions during this period is 17.3%.

Where does the market go from here? Well, it’s still increasing on a steady curve, although some years the market seems to get ahead of itself and in others it falls behind. One interesting issue is the current market share by genre. As of April 2008, 94.2% of the MMOG of the market falls into the category of fantasy RPG; 3.7% in sci-fi RPG (including superheroes), 0.2% in combat simulation / FPS, and 1.9% in the social / other category. To me these numbers indicate a hugely disproportionate emphasis on the fantasy setting – and remember, this does not include many of the predominately fantasy MMOGs in the Asian markets. Even though some MMOGs in the FPS or social / other categories have a sci-fi setting, this nevertheless makes for quite a lopsided market. Consider movies or television, where science fiction is featured far more often than high fantasy, with a correspondingly higher financial success (Lord of the Rings being a notable exception). Several companies are seeking to exploit this untapped potential; recently launched and future titles Huxley, Tabla Rasa, The Agency, Stargate Worlds, and Warhammer 40K Online all feature a science fiction setting, and Huxley is also an FPS to boot. Yet other new entrants continue to focus on the fantasy genre: Age of Conan, Aion, Hero’s Journey, Lord of the Rings Online, Vanguard: Saga of Heroes, and Warhammer Online, as well as several other titles.

MMOG SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
I’ve decided to separate out some MMOG specific commentary from the main analysis provided above.

The Realm Online (Accuracy Rating: A)
The Realm has remained in operation since its release on December 31, 1996. It reached its zenith at 25,000 subscribers but declined afterwards with the advent of games like UO and EQ. The game is still alive today with a small yet dedicated player base; previously this had been estimated at around 5,000 subscribers, but an interview with the game’s current developers revealed they actually had about 12,000 as of October 2005. http://www.realmserver.com/

Ultima Online (Accuracy Rating: A)
Launched on September 30, 1997, UO experienced fairly predictable growth until April 2001, where it peaked at 240,000 subscribers shortly after the release of UO: Third Dawn. Subsequently, press releases from EA consistently quoted the 225,000 figure, and the growth was flat for over a year. It is likely that the actual trend during this period was slowly downward to the 208,000 mark in December 2002. With the release of UO: Age of Shadows, UO seemed to reach new highs in 2003 to about 250,000 subscribers, but since then has shown a steady decline. As of December 2007, UO had about 75,000 subscribers worldwide, with about 50,000 of those in Japan. http://www.uo.com/

Lineage: The Blood Pledge (Accuracy Rating: A)
Since its release in September 1998, Lineage was been a gaming phenomenon in South Korea for years, and has since been exported to other markets with somewhat lesser success. Some press reports will say Lineage has over 4 million “subscribers”. Lineage actually has a variety of different pricing schemes, and many players access the game via Internet cybercafes rather than a more traditional monthly subscription. The numbers I have chosen to use are the “monthly access” numbers, which I feel are the most directly comparable to other monthly subscription MMOGs. After peaking at over 3 million unique monthly users in 2003, the game has waned noticeably, first due to competition from its successor, Lineage II, and then with the arrival of World of Warcraft. As of December 2007, Lineage had 1,056,177 unique monthly access subcribers, with only 6,414 subscribers in the United States. http://www.lineage.com/

EverQuest (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on March 16, 1999, EQ’s figures pretty much speak for themselves. At one point their growth seemed nearly unstoppable, but the trend began to slow between 2001 and 2003, and after peaking at about 460,000 subscribers, EQ went into decline. SOE’s last official statement regarding EQ’s subscribers in 2004 only claimed “over 420,000″. The latter data points on the graph come not from press releases, but from inside sources, and they show a somewhat different picture, with a high of some 550,000 subscribers in September 2004. It is important to note that the more recent data points represent not just total monthly subscribers, but also subscribers with active accounts on free time, eligible accounts on game time cards, etc. SOE station pass subscriptions are not counted unless they actually have registered an EQ account. It is possible that the earlier figures from the SOE press releases were deliberately conservative, and/or did not count such accounts, thus accounting for this apparent discrepancy. As of January 2007, EQ had fallen sharply to only 175,000 current subscribers. http://eqlive.station.sony.com/

Asheron’s Call (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on October 31, 1999, AC has been one of the most difficult games to get good subscription numbers for. Historically, both Microsoft and Turbine were reluctant to give out their figures, perhaps because they were not the big success that UO, EQ, and DAoC were. Still, I’ve managed to get a few data points that I consider reliable, and removed a few that I have since determined to be erroneous. AC1 saw a peak of around 120,00 subscribers after the release of its first expansion pack, AC: Dark Majesty, but declined not long thereafter to around 80,000. As of February 2007, AC1 had reportedly fallen to around 15,000 subscribers according to inside sources. http://ac.turbinegames.com/

Anarchy Online (Accuracy Rating: B)
Released on June 27, 2001, AO initially suffered from a bad launch, and after peaking at about 60,000 subscribers shortly thereafter, it began to rapidly hemorrhage customers. Funcom eventually hired The Themis Group, a MMOG consulting firm, to stop the bleeding. Subscriptions dropped to a low of about 20,000 before rebounding, growing to nearly 40,000 by the end of 2003. Recently, FunCom started offering limited “free” game accounts that were supported by in-game advertising. While reports are that this has caused the number of people playing the game to grow, the actual number of currently paying subscribers continues to shrink, to some 12,000 subscribers as of December 2005. http://www.anarchy-online.com/

WWII Online (Accuracy Rating: A)
In the interests of full disclosure, it should be noted that I have a minority financial interest in Playnet/CRS, WWII Online’s developer. Having said that, the numbers shown are based on a combination of public statements and inside sources. After a poor launch on June 6, 2001, the number of players has waxed and waned several times, usually between 11,000 and 13,000 subscribers. In November 2005, the game was launched into European territories under the new name, Battleground Europe, and it is believed this has resulted in a substantial increase in the game’s subscriber base, although exact figures have still yet to be released. As of July 2005, the number of subscribers was believed to be approximately 12,000. http://www.wwiionline.com/

Majestic (Accuracy Rating: A)
Launched on July 31, 2001, Majestic was EA’s attempt to blend a mystery/suspense/puzzle game that interacted with the player in real life via web sites, emails, and even telephone calls. While tens of thousands of potential players tried out the first episode, the number who actually felt the game was worth a subscription was far fewer. After initially garnering some 15,000 subscribers, the numbers began to fall steadily, and within a few months EA was forced to rework the game, and then later shut it down completely. Majestic closed on April 3, 2002. http://majestic.ea.com/

Dark Age of Camelot (Accuracy Rating: C)
Released on October 10, 2001, DAoC was one of the first big hits after the initial “big three” of UO, EQ, and AC. After reaching some 250,000 active users in August 2002, numbers declined to about 210,000 in February 2003, then slowly recovered back to a level of 245,000 – 250,000 subscribers in 2004. It is known that DAoC’s numbers have declined sharply since the release of World of Warcraft; EA Mythic’s CEO Mark Jacobs acknowledged the decline but did not quantify the extent of the loss. The number of concurrent users has fallen substantially, but how many of those players have actually made the decision to unsubscribe is not yet known. Current sources put the number of DAoC subscribers as of March 2008 as low as 45,000 subscribers, but that number is disputed. Until I can pin down the figure with more certainty, I’ve reduced my Accuracy Rating on the DAoC data to a C. http://www.darkageofcamelot.com/

Motor City Online (Accuracy Rating: A)
Released on October 10, 2001, MCO’s developers provided regular subscriber numbers early on in its history, but as its lack of success became apparent, exact figures became harder to come by. After peaking at some 36,000 subscribers, falling subscriptions caused EA to shut down MCO on August 29, 2003. http://mco.ea.com/

Tibia (Accuracy Rating: A)
Tibia is a fantasy MMORPG that can be played for free, but for a few dollars a month players can purchase premium accounts that offer many more features, new areas, items, and monsters, and so on. It is important to note that the chart records actual subscribers from the start of premium service in November 2001, not the free accounts. As of March 2008 Tibia has 104,338 subscribers. http://www.tibia.com/

RuneScape (Accuracy Rating: A)
RuneScape is a Java-based fantasy MMOG that, like Tibia, can be played for free but which offers premium accounts for a small monthly fee. It is important to note that the chart records actual subscribers from the start of premium service on February 27, 2002, not the free accounts. RuneScape seems to be extremely popular with young adults and teenagers, probably due to the game’s relatively low price point, multitude of payment options, and the fact that the game can be run on just about any computer, including publicly accessible PCs in schools, libraries, and cyber cafes. As of December 2007, RuneScape had approximately 1,200,000 subscribers. http://www.runescape.com/

Final Fantasy XI (Accuracy Rating: B)
FF XI was released in Japan on May 16, 2002, and then in North America on October 29, 2003. Square-Enix used to provide specific subscriber figures fairly regularly, but in recent years they’ve become much more reserved. Every year they release a census of the game’s online population; however, the figures from these reports do not always line up with other sources. For example, it’s unclear if FFXI passed 500K subscribers in January 2004 or April 2004. Recent censuses from Square-Enix will only confirm “over 500,000 players”, but the actual number could be closer to 700,000. For now, I’ve decided to go with 500,000 subscribers as the most reliable estimate, until I receive further guidance from the company. http://www.playonline.com/

Earth & Beyond (Accuracy Rating: A)
Released on September 24, 2002, E&B did not do as well as EA expected. Only 53,000 units were sold after launch; subscriptions peaked at below 40,000, and then fell into the 20,000 – 25,000 range. EA closed E&B on September 22, 2004. http://www.earthandbeyond.ea.com/

Neocron (Accuracy Rating: B)
Released on September 9, 2002, Neocron was one of the first hybrid MMORPG/FPS. The initial version of the game did not do well, only garnering 1,000 or so subscribers; however, the gamer’s developer, Reakktor, were pleased enough to launch a sequel, Neocron 2, two years later. http://www.neocron.com/

Asheron’s Call 2: Fallen Kings (Accuracy Rating: B)
Released on November 22, 2002, AC2 was one of the first MMOG games to get an official sequel. Like AC1, getting good subscription figures for AC2 has been difficult, but new sources have helped me pin down a more accurate picture of the game’s history. At one time the game had perhaps as many as 50,000 subscribers, but that number soon fell, and the release of the game’s only expansion pack did not stem the decline. Turbine closed AC2 on December 30, 2005. http://ac2.turbinegames.com/

The Sims Online (Accuracy Rating: A)
Released on December 17, 2002, TSO was not the runaway success EA had hoped for — they initially projected 400,000 subscribers by the end of 2003, then they cut their expectations to 200,000 by the end of the year shortly after the game came out, and then again to only 125,000 players by May of 2004. The disappointing subscription figures for the game were widely reported in various news articles. After reaching a peak of 105,000 in June 2003, subscriptions began dropping dramatically. At last report in December 2007, the game had only 8,000 subscribers. On February 27, 2008, The Sims Online was effectively shut down and relaunched as a free to play game under the new name EA-Land, and thus is no longer tracked. http://www.thesimsonline.com/

There (Accuracy Rating: A)
There first came online in January 2003, and has gone through several different pricing structures. At its peak in January 2005 the game had approximately 17,000 subscribers, but in October 2005 the game became free to play and thus is no longer tracked. http://www.there.com/

A Tale in the Desert (Accuracy Rating: B)
A Tale in the Desert launched on February 1, 2003. It’s a small game, but one which I have frequently gotten inquiries about, so I finally decided to add it to the charts. It should be noted that the data shown comes from ATitD’s own online census of in-game citizens, using the largest number measured within any given month, and does not strictly include every account in the game, so the actual number of subscribers could potentially be as much as 50% higher than shown here. As of April 2008, the game had at least 1,054 subscribers. http://www.atitd.com/

EverQuest Online Adventures (Accuracy Rating: B)
Released for the Sony PlaySation2 on February 11, 2003, this console version of EQ never quite reached SOE’s initial expectations of 100,000 subscribers. SOE station pass subscriptions are not counted unless they actually have registered an EQOA account. As of May 2006, the number of active subscribers stands at around 30,000. http://everquestonlineadventures.station.sony.com/

Shadowbane (Accuracy Rating: B)
Released on March 25, 2003, Shadowbane peaked at over 50,000 subscribers, Shadowbane has declined, although just how far is uncertain. Wolfpack’s initial projections were for 50,000 – 70,000 subscribers in order to be cash flow positive. In March 2006, Shadowbane became free to play, and thus is no longer tracked. http://www.shadowbane.com/

Mankind (Accuracy Rating: A)
Re-launched in May 2003, Mankind (not to be confused with Face of Mankind) is a rare subscription based massively multiplayer persistent universe real time strategy game, little known in North America. The graph represents the game’s history since taken over by Hong Kong based O2 Online Entertainment. As of March 2005 the game sports some 5,000 subscribers. http://mankind.o2oe.com/

EVE Online (Accuracy Rating: A)
EVE Online has quietly been a real success story since their launch on May 6, 2003, starting out small and slowly building more and more subscribers, with almost no competition in the market for its particular brand of sci-fi space combat simulation. As of April 2008, EVE Online has 236,510 subscribers. http://www.eve-online.com/

PlanetSide (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on May 20, 2003, PlanetSide has not done as well as SOE initially planned. After peaking at some 60,000 subscribers in October 2003, the game has been in decline. Insider sources place the number of PlanetSide subscribers as of May 2006 at around 20,000. http://planetside.station.sony.com/

Toontown Online (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on June 2, 2003 as Disney’s kid-friendly MMOG, Toontown appears to be fairly popular. However, the company has been very quiet about their actual subscriber numbers. Previously I included some industry estimates for Toontown on the chart, but since then insider sources have indicated that those figures were too low. The new data on the chart reflects what I believe is a somewhat more accurate picture of where the game stands relative to its peers. As of January 2007, Toontown Online is believed to have about 100,000 subscribers. http://play.toontown.com/

Second Life (Accuracy Rating: A)
After its low-key launch in June 2003, Second Life showed accelerating growth until its peak in June 2007; after a drop, it’s begun growing again, although at a slower rate. Historically, accurate numbers of premium subscribers were difficult to come by, and were often confused with reports of the much lrager number of free players. Recently, Linden Labs has begun publicly released data on the actual number of premium subscribers, and I’ve adjusted the chart to reflect this. As of February 2008, Second Life had 91,531 premium subscribers. http://secondlife.com/

Star Wars Galaxies (Accuracy Rating: C)
Since its launch on June 26, 2003, the number of subscribers to Star Wars Galaxies has always been somewhat uncertain. An official statement released by John Smedley, President of SOE, in March 2004 suggested there were then currently between 200,000 and 300,000 subscribers and that SW: G was the second largest MMO in the North American market. I assume he was discounting Ragnarok Online and possibly FFXI in that statement, so I put the number at that time at 275,000. Since then, the number of subscribers has fallen sharply, although there is no official word on exactly how much. In a more recent statement in March 2006, Smedley said that SWG was the fifth largest MMOG in the North American market, behind WoW, EQ, EQ2, and RuneScape, which would put the number of subscribers at that time somewhere between 175,000 and 250,000. Based on previously known data, I put the total number of subscribers for SWG at 190,000 for March 2006. Since then, that number has continued to decline, but the true extent of the decline is still uncertain. As of October 2007, sources indicate the game has approximately 100,000 subscribers, but I believe the number could be much lower. http://starwarsgalaxies.station.sony.com/

Lineage II: The Chaotic Chronicle (Accuracy Rating: A)
The sequel to the highly successful Lineage, Lineage II launched first in South Korea on October 1, 2003 and then the United States on April 28, 2004. After reaching a peak of over 2.1 million monthly access subscribers worldwide in March 2005, the game has fallen sharply since the arrival of World of Warcraft. As of December 2007, Lineage II had 1,006,556 unique monthly access subscribers worldwide, with 79,986 of those in the US and Europe combined. http://www.lineage2.com/

Sphere (Accuracy Rating: B)
Sphere is one of the first MMOGs to come out of Russia, but I know very little about it other than it had some 15,000 subscribers in early 2004. The Moscow Times had an interesting article about the game, and you can learn more from their web site. http://sphere.yandex.ru/eng/

Yohoho! Puzzle Pirates (Accuracy Rating: A)
Puzzle Pirates has grown steadily since launching on December 8, 2003, and as of April 2006 the game had approximately 34,000 subscribers and “subscriber equivalents”, those who play the game via the purchase of Doubloons rather than a monthly subscription fee. http://www.puzzlepirates.com/

Horizons: Empire of Istaria (Accuracy Rating: B)
Horizons launched on December 9, 2003. After peaking early at around 35,000 subscribers, they game’s population has fallen steadily, but now seems to have stabilized. As of January 2007, Horizons had approximately 5,000 subscribers. http://www.istaria.com/

Era of Eidolon (Accuracy Rating: A)
Now here is an entry that is a first of its kind – a mobile phone MMOG! Made by Danish developer Watagame, this Java-based game had approximately 27,000 players in October of 2005, although since this game really isn’t subscription based, I’m probably going to remove it from the charts. http://www.eraofeidolon.com/

City of Heroes / Villains (Accuracy Rating: A)
Launched on April 28, 2004, City of Heroes is proof that a well-executed MMOG can still garner substantial numbers even in the currently very competitive climate. CoH quickly reached an initial peak of over 180,000 subscribers in July 2004, and then declined, only to recover again in 2005. In October 2005, a companion product, City of Villains, was released as both an expansion and a standalone game, helping to boost the game’s popularity to new heights. As of December 2007, the number of subscribers worldwide was 136,250. http://www.cityofheroes.com/ or http://www.cityofvillains.com/

Dofus (Accuracy Rating: A)
Launched in France on September 1, 2004, Dofus grew steadily at first, and then increased sharply with the release of their English language version on September 1, 2005. As of April 2008, Dofus has reached 452,000 subscribers worldwide. http://www.dofus.com/

Neocron 2 (Accuracy Rating: B)
Released on September 30, 2004, Neocron 2 is the sequel to Neocron, which was eventually shut down after Neocron 2’s release. Reakktor has always been quiet about their suscriber numbers, but it was revealed that they had 6,000 subscribers as of June 2006. http://www.neocron.com/

EverQuest II (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on November 8, 2004, this is the sequel to the highly successful EverQuest. Early press releases and news reports indicated that EQII had over 300,000 subscribers, as well as a statement in March 2005 that the game had “over 350,000 players logging in every week”. The number of subscribers declined substantially after that ealy peak. As of January 2007, inside sources indicate the game had approximately 200,000 total subscribers. http://everquest2.station.sony.com/

World of Warcraft (Accuracy Rating: A)
Launched on November 12, 2004, Blizzard’s entry into the MMOG market has been a runaway phenomenon, outpacing all expectations and becoming the leading subscription based MMOG in almost every market. Since March 2007, however, its growth has slowed noticeably. As of January 2008, WoW has over 10 million subscribers worldwide, including over 2.5 million in North America, over 2 million in Europe, and approximately 5.5 million in Asia (primarily China). http://www.worldofwarcraft.com/

The Matrix Online (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on March 22, 2005, MxO did not do as well as Warner Brothers had hoped, and on August 2, 2005, ownership of the game was transferred to Sony Online Entertainment. As of May 2006, inside sources estimate the number of subscribers at 30,000. http://thematrixonline.station.sony.com/

Dungeons & Dragons Online: Stormreach (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on February 28, 2006, Dungeons & Dragons Online has not done as well as expected, but hard data on the actual number of subscribers has been hard to come by. As of February 2007, DDO was believed to have approximately 45,000 subscribers according to inside sources. http://www.ddo.com/

Auto Assault (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on April 11, 2006, Auto Assault did not do as well as NCSoft had hoped. Most reports say the game never got over 10,000 subscribers, but sources close to the game indicated to me that the actual number was “a little higher” than 10,000. Due to these low numbers, Auto Assault was shut down on August 31, 2007. http://www.autoassault.com/

Vanguard: Saga of Heroes (Accuracy Rating: C)
Launched on January 26, 2007, Vanguard did not do as well as Sigil Games expected; after peaking at approximately 120,000 subscribers after launch, that number quickly declined. On May 15, 2007, SOE acquired the game from Sigil. As of May 2007, Vanguard was believed to have approximately 40,000 subscribers. http://vanguard.station.sony.com/

The Lord of the Rings Online (Accuracy Rating: B)
Launched on April 24, 2007, LotrO has been a big success for Turbine, winning several awards and garnering many positive reviews. While exact subscriber numbers have never been officially released, in August 2007 Turbine claimed LotRO was the second largest MMORPG developed in North America. This leaves out games like RuneScape, Dofus, and EVE Online; essentially, Turbine was indicating that the game had more current subscribers than EQ or EQ II, but less than World of Warcraft. Based on this statement, I estimate that as of August 2007 LotRO had approximately 200,000 subscribers. Inside sources place the number of active subscribers at 150,000 as of December 2007. http://www.lotro.com/

Pirates of the Caribbean Online (Accuracy Rating: C)
Launched on October 31, 2007, PotCO is similar to Disney’s other offering, Toontown, although this one is based on the popular movie franchise. As of February 2008 the game is believed to have approximately 10,000 paying subscribers, but that number is disputed. http://disney.go.com/pirates/online/

Tabula Rasa (Accuracy Rating: C)
Launched on October 30, 2007, Richard Garriott’s Tabula Rasa was a highly-anticipated sci-fi themed MMORPG from NCSoft. So far, the game has been somewhat less successful than expected. NCSoft did not break out subscriber numbers for Tabula Rasa in their quarterly report, but based upon revenue figures provided I estimate that as of December 2007 Tabula Rasa had approximately 125,000 susbcribers. NCSoft’s projection for TR in 2008 is between 80,000 and 100,000 subscribers. As of March 2008, sources indicate the current number of active subscribers is closer to 75,000; an official number should be forthcoming from NCSoft in May. http://www.rgtr.com/

Pirates of the Burning Sea (Accuracy Rating: A)
Launched on January 7, 2008, PotBS has been doing quite well. As of April 2008 sources indicate the game has approximately 65,000 subscribers. http://www.burningsea.com/

IN CLOSING
I’m very pleased that so many people have found my research useful, particularly those in the MMOG industry. However, it is only as useful as YOU make it. So please, if you are a MMOG developer or involved with one, and you have subscription data for your game, PLEASE email me. If your bosses are reluctant to give out numbers, show them this chart and tell them everyone else is doing it and it won’t hurt their business. If they resist, email me anyway… I promise to keep your name confidential. I’m also very interested in additional historical data to fill in missing data or adjust past data points to increase accuracy. I will continue to update the chart periodically as things change and add new insights as trends emerge.

For those who want to examine the actual numbers used to construct the charts, you may download the Excel file from the Downloads section.

Bruce Sterling Woodcock
sirbruce2 at ix dot netcom dot com