FAQ
An Analysis of MMOG Subscription Growth
1. Why isn’t <MMOG_NAME> listed?
There are four main reasons why a particular game isn’t listed in the charts:
a) The game in question isn’t really a MMOG, at least by my reckoning. Games like Diablo II and Phantasy Star Online fall into this category. Guild Wars developers say in their own FAQ that they do not consider their game a MMOG; in addition, it doesn’t charge a monthly fee (see below). Please don’t email me trying to insist otherwise; I’m not likely to be convinced.
b) The game in question is free and/or doesn’t charge a regular monthly fee. Games like Furcadia, Magic: the Gathering Online, and Project Entropia are good examples; these games are normally free to play, but some players can also pay a variable amount to access additional content in the game. This makes it almost impossible to come up with a number comparable to monthly subscribers in other games. If a game is free to play, but also offers a premium monthly subscription, then I will chart only those paying subscriptions.
c) The game in question is too small to chart. This would include games like Blade Mistress, Gemstone IV, and Meridian 59. In the past, I’ve been reluctant to chart games below about 10,000 subscribers, mainly because they made the charts very crowded, and it was not my goal to list every game that came along. Still, I have made exceptions for some smaller games that are making an impact, and it is possible that in the future more of the smaller MMOGs will be represented - but only if I get data for them.
d) I don’t currently have good data for the game in question. This is the most likely reason why a MMOG you are looking for is not listed. This includes many foreign MMOGs that don’t provide subscriber data, as well as newer games like Pirates of the Burning Sea. These games are certainly popular, but I simply do not have access to monthly subscription figures at this time. If you have any data on these or other games not listed, feel free to drop me a line!
2. Where do you get your numbers?
My numbers come from a variety of sources, and some games have more than one source. These sources include the following:
a) Official Corporate Data - As my research has grown in popularity and importance, more and more game companies are now providing me with subscriber data directly. You’ll probably be able to spot which ones simply by the fact that they tend to have more data points than other games. My ultimate goal is to have ALL companies in this market providing data in the same way, either through me or directly to everyone in the market, for the benefit of the industry as a whole.
b) Corporate Press Releases - From time to time, particularly whenever a game reaches a particular subscriber milestone, companies will release a press release trumpeting the success of their game. This was much more common in the early years than it is today; Origin/EA, Verant/Sony, and Mythic used to announce their numbers regularly. These days, it’s usually Blizzard.
c) Corporate Documents - Generally speaking, these are public documents for the purposes of financial disclosure and/or investor relations. Many people outside of the financial industry never see these documents, so they may be unaware of their existence. NCSoft is the best example of this; they regularly release quarterly reports that break down their numbers at a far more detailed level than what I provide here. Not all MMOG developers are public, though, and many that are do not routinely disclose numbers down to the subscriber level. Sometimes a number does slip out, though, and if I find it, I’ll use it. Other times these are disclosed in bankruptcy documents or other court records.
d) News Articles - From time to time, reporters for both online and offline publications are able to get a hold of numbers that I have not. Care has to be taken, though, as sometimes a reporter can confuse total sales with subscribers, or may simply regurgitate a number that is many months old. Still, if I find a number that appears to be credible, I will generally use it.
e) Public Comments - Game developers and publishers will sometimes make public comments about their subscriber numbers, even if there’s no official announcement. Rarely, these comments are places like developer mailing lists or message boards; more often, they are related at gaming conferences or press events. Still, if they are not widely reported in a news article, these can be even harder to find out about.
f) Anonymous Sources - More and more of my data is now coming from inside sources: people within the industry who give me numbers on the condition of anonymity. So far most of these have been pretty reliable - if their numbers are not exact, they are usually in the ballpark. As always, I have to use my best judgment in deciding whether or not a source is credible.
g) Educated Guesses - Very rarely, a number will appear on the chat that’s non-sourced and simply my educated guess based on known information. An example might be, “Well, we know they have at least 200K subscribers, and they’ve sold 600K copies, and their revenues are such-n-such, so I’m going to say they have at least 350K subscribers for the purposes of the chart.” I do not do this very often, and if I do, I’ll duly note it in the Analysis section by giving the data an appropriate Accuracy Rating.
In a few cases where numbers seemed to conflict, I have picked the one that seemed the most reliable and which seemed to fit with other data. The upshot of all this is that these numbers should not be taken as gospel. They represent the best research to date.
3. Your numbers are all made up or are just guesses!
I assure you, they are not. It is true that many companies keep their subscriber numbers confidential, but others are more open about it. Almost all of the data I use comes from actual sources, although often those sources are insiders who only give the information on the condition of anonymity. If I simply wanted to make up numbers, I’d put out an update every week, and those updates would quickly be revealed as faulty when compared to, say, company press releases. So, while I am the first to admit that the data is not always reliable, it does represent the best research in the industry to date, and it is most definitely not made up - or at least, not by me. In the rare event that an actual “guess” does appear on my chart, you will find the Accuracy Rating for that MMOG appropriately adjusted my Analysis. For more discussion on this point, I recommend you read the Analysis section of my research and draw your own conclusions.
4. Your data for <MMOG_NAME> is wrong!
It’s possible; I’ve had erroneous data on the charts in the past. However, if you’re going to offer a correction, please provide some source for your numbers. It is important that the number is representative of TOTAL CURRENT SUBSCRIBERS, not other metrics like box sales, or peak concurrent users. Newspaper and magazine articles are often good sources, but sometimes may be quoting old data that is no longer accurate. In the past, it has usually been the person trying to correct me who was actually mistaken, so do try to double-check your source before getting into an argument with me over numbers.
5. Can you provide a breakdown of MMOG subscribers by regional territory (North America, Europe, Asia)?
I wish! Sadly such information is simply not available for most of the games I cover. NCSoft provides regional breakdowns, but most other companies do not, and what I do hear is usually approximate data and only applie to one point in time; historical territory breakdown numbers are even more scarce. When I do have regional data that I think is particularly interesting, I will note it in the individual game’s entry in the Analysis section or in a comment in the Excel file.
6. Can I use your site as a reference in my <web site/book/research paper/news article/etc.>?
Sure! Just be sure to include the current URL, the version you’re referencing, and my name. The whole point of this site is to provide this data for free for use by those interested in the industry. If you’re working on a research paper, an example citation would look like this:
Woodcock, Bruce Sterling. “An Analysis of MMOG Subscription Growth” MMOGCHART.COM 12.0. 29 November 2004. 1 January 2005. http://www.mmogchart.com
Please don’t send me a copy of a release to sign and fax back to you. Tell your lawyers to get with the Internet age.
7. Do you have a way I can subscribe to your site so I can be notified of updates?
Yes, you can now subscribe to this blog via an RSS feed!
8. Can I get previous versions of your charts?
The charts and the research I do are an ongoing chronicle, so any data I had in the past is always included within the current charts. Indeed, previous charts have sometimes contained inaccuracies, so the latest data should always be used for reference whenever possible. While I do keep personal copies of previous versions, they are generally not made available for redistribution.
9. Who are you, anyway?
I got into Internet online gaming when I was attending college at Purdue University. My first experiences were with text-based TinyMUDs; in fact, I eventually ran the two biggest MUDs of the day, Islandia and TinyMUD Classic, for a while in 1990. After that, I dabbled in a variety of online games, and became particularly enamored with MMOGs with the release of Ultima Online in 1997. Since that time I have played several MMOGs and become involved in a variety of online communities. I became an angel investor in WWII Online back in 2000, and started my research into MMOG subscriptions in 2002. Currently I am an independent MMOG consultant and analyst, and would like to get back into the MMOG field as a game designer and/or quest writer. If you’re looking for one in the San Jose, California area, please drop me a line!
